Welcome to Orcmid's Lair, the playground for family connections, pastimes, and scholarly vocation -- the collected professional and recreational work of Dennis E. Hamilton

 

Jakob Nielsen: From -30 Past to +30 Future

Thirty years with computers: Builder AU: Web Development: Site Design.  Slashdot spotted this compact reflection + prediction article.

It is interesting to see Jakob Nielsen's reflections on his first experience with computers in 1974 (a minicomputer followed by a mainframe system), to the personal computing experience of today, followed by an extrapolation to +30 and what he expects to see, if he keeps up his exercise!

I can testify that the computer keeps being re-personalized (though the first personal users were definitely of the code wizard ilk), based on my ability to reach back to -46 and my first programs (IBM 704 then IBM 650 -- I was heading in the other direction toward personal use, and I never got very far from that), even when batch submission was the norm. So, with serious attention to diet and fitness, I might check in with Jakob at +30 to review these predictions.

I will be happy to have a personal terabyte along with 100 GB of non-volatile RAM on a tablet configuration. Fortunately, I won't have to wait so long for that. Also, I want something that leaves me in custody of my digital materials while also being able to memorialize whatever might be valuable to hand onward to those who follow. We are getting to the time when preserving a domain name and cyber-identity beyond our lifetime becomes a consideration.

With regard to Nielsen's particular 2034 predictions, I see this:

• Personal computer - more than enough soon enough
• Display resolution and performance - ditto
• Self-Healing systems against bugs and exploits - yes, but it is difficult to see how we get there from here: this is not a more-better-faster deal, it is about a whole different way to be smarter
• Games and Simulations - I like that, especially putting more play back into computing, just so long as it has nothing to do with fast reflexes and pop-culture knowledge, and maybe there is a way to take social software into this for the community of oldsters
• Computational Agency - well, all right, though my model is still Heinlein's smart vehicle in Number of the Beast
• Jacking In - I think I'll pass on that one, and can see a terrible separation of generations as the kids continue to cyberize themselves.

See also:

1 Terabyte per Person for Life

posted by orcmid at 5/28/2004 03:17:20 PM