W040400a: Speculating Risk - Diary & Job Jar

Status	Date	Description



	2007-03-17	w040400: The link to the PDF in ESA2004 is no longer valid. The link in the page at ESA1996 is also no longer valid. I need a cache of the report and its materials as backup (and I can refer to the Wikipedia archive too).
	2006-01-01	Create a see-also of the blog post.
	2006-01-01	Spread out the three steps that doomed the mission into bullets and use other wording refinements made on the blog post.
	2006-01-01	Simson Garfinkel just pointed me to the Wikipedia treatment of the Ariane Flight 501 failure. There is some interesting material there, based on an odd source. I have captured the pages, links, and quotes for inclusion in coverage here.
	2006-01-01	There's a gap in my comp.risks that includes the period when Garfinkel's article appeared in Wired. Go review to see what might have been mentioned there.
	2006-01-01	Submit a note to comp.risks as promised to PGN way too long ago.
	2006-01-01	Double-check Sommerville's site for latest references and the special compilation of further articles that he has made.
	2006-01-01	Cite Ladner's appraisal as another that does much to dispell the myth and the decontextualized promotion of inapplicable remedies.
	2006-01-01	Make consistent use of fonts in explicit URLs on the front page and elsewhere
	2006-01-01	The fragment ID in the link to [Sommerville2001] is incorrect. The correction needs to be made at /readings/swe.htm
	2005-12-30	Use W040400d as a container for all of the cached material that I am keeping for archival purposes in case the on-line versions ever disappear.
	2005-12-30	Create W040400f as the next version for making the new approach.
	2005-12-30	Make W040400c into an initial version using the material turned in as my class response. Then make the feeble second attempt (W040400e), then continue with a third.
	2005-12-30	Create a W040400b placeholder in the usual way.
	2004-09-29	Recover the new material that Sommerville has collected and linked to also
	2004-05-17	As there is material here, do a "trackback" sort of thing from the Praxis101 Wiki.
	2004-05-17	Check the notes in today's call with anderbill. I think we touched on something that may be pertinent here.
	2004-05-17	There is a connection today in eWeek about statistics on code quality and such. It would be useful to see how that works out.
	2004-05-17	Also look back through my architetto/ingegnere Outlook notes for previous discussions and connections
	2004-05-17	It would be nice to have some visuals. Might want to see what is available on the CNN and also the ESA sites.
	2004-05-17	I need to conduct a wider literature search, beside Risks Digest. Use the ACM and IEEE-CS Digital Libraries and also the ACM TechNet material. There may be other sites as well.
	2004-05-17	There is something about faith in software, and faith in the perfectability of software that might be at issue here. MacKenzie and the dependable software people may have something to offer on this. There is also something about the premises of autonomic computing and ductile response to security penetrations as well. This should be checked here.
	2004-05-17	This analysis will raise open questions. I need to have a way to manage that without having to dive in, while also determining what next is required. Some of it is psycho-social-dynamic, some of it is something about hammers and nails, and some of it is how does one instill the appropriate practices that provide for validity vigilance or something like it.
	2004-05-17	In discussing the speculating risks part, consider that it is done from the perspective of the observer - it is easier for programmers to see this as related to a software bug, not as a design, software engineering, and systems engineering defect (the word "failure" is not appropriate here). This is different than the perspective (possibly shared by the same people) in which this is desired to be "nothing more" than a programming error.
	2004-05-17	Do a general google search on Ariane 501 and the different coverages and reportings of it
	2004-05-17	Move the notes on review of the risks digest to a collected note, with links for attributions
	2004-05-17	Review my blog and create a blog page that collects all of my notes on Ariane 501
	2004-05-17	Make a little index page that identifies the materials and subpages of this writing project that are here.
	2004-04-06	Create a catalog of the notes and archive copies that I have brought under this article, then figure out how to sequester them properly.
	2004-04-06	Have a good-enough draft reviewed by AnderBill, Gail Miles, the Dependable Computing contact, Arnold, Sommerville, and the usual suspects (PJD, Glass, PGN, McConnell and maybe Parnas too).
	2004-04-06	Cite Lister & DeMarco as well as the work on creation of invalid mental models that was done in the UK.
	2004-04-06	Retire Draft 0.00 and create 0.10 with elimination of nit-picking of the assignment and Arnold's non sequiter so that it does not create a distraction from the main points.
done	2007-03-17	w040400/2040400a: Rename these files to use lower-case, so that the links from existing blog posts will continue to work. Correct links to them from: w000001-log.htm, w040400, w040400a, w040400e
done	2006-01-01	Correct the centering of description elements at the bottom of this form.
done	2005-12-31	Complete a blog post using W040400 summary material and tying to the Simson Garfinkel article.
done	2005-12-31	Upload the reorganized material to the hosted site for preservation and linkage from any blog post
done 2005-12-31	2004-04-06	Feature the press release that announced the findings better. It is useful to focus on the root cause by what the Inquiry Board focused on as the necessary remedies.
done 2005-12-31	2005-12-30	I am interested in picking up on this. Reading Simson Garfinkel's listing of Ariane 501 as on of history's 10 most serious bugs, I had to dust this off and make a different effort at specifying the nature and the lessons. I start by restructuring the old material.
done 2005-12-31	2005-12-30	Use W040400 to hold the approach, and identify what the source materials are because I lose track of what is at those archive points. [The bibliography and scholarship cache can just grow, there's no reason to make a version progression for it.]
done 2005-12-31	2005-12-30	Move W040400b.mht to ~~W040400h.mht~~ W040400d1.mht. [dh:2005-12-31 The other .mht, .pdf, and .rtf files are also renamed to be organized under the refactored pages.]
done 2005-12-31	2005-12-30	Create a new W040400 placeholder.
done 2005-12-31	2005-12-30	Move W040400 into W040400ie.
done 2005-12-31	2005-12-30	Correct the anchors, title-block linkages, and construction blocks to reflect movement to writings/2004/04/W040400: W040400, W040400a. Move W040400 to W040400e where it will serve as the second version of an attempt about this.
done	2004-09-29	Stitch the HTML pages here into the Writings Catalog.
done	2004-09-29	Adjust this format to the latest style and formats
done	2004-04-06	Add link in citation of [Lions1996] from note [2].
done	2004-04-06	Correct the title in the header of the W040400.htm page
done	2004-04-06	Change the title to "Risks of Risk Speculation."
done	2004-04-06	Make a job jar and transfer over all of the items I have thought of since stopping late last night.
done	2004-04-05	AnderBill calls wanting to find what I have on Ariane 5 Flight 501 so he can dash off a letter about the current Dr. Dobb's issue. I resolve to start building an article and claim this unfulfilled promise off of my integrity checklist.